Written by Kenneth Warren, Ph.D., The Associate Director of the
According to a poll conducted by YouGov/SLU, Donald Trump is showing a comfortable lead among voters in Missouri. However, he is also leading Joe Biden in the most crucial battleground states. In Missouri, Trump has the support of 50% of likely voters, while Biden has 43%. Nationally, Trump is leading Biden with 49% to 40%, according to an average of polls from realclearpolitics.Com.
Missouri, once touted as the nation’s best bellwether state during the 1900s, has been trending red in recent presidential elections, with large vote margins for winning candidates such as Trump, Romney, McCain, and George W. Bush. However, Missouri did not vote for the Democratic presidential candidate in 1996 and 1992, especially not for Bill Clinton, who won those elections.
In our July survey, 40% of Missouri voters self-identified as Evangelicals, whereas the figure stood at 45% in 2016. This holds significance as it represents a substantial demographic. The slight decrease in Evangelical support indicates a decline from 2016, when he secured 83% of the Evangelical vote compared to Clinton’s 14%. Although he continues to enjoy strong backing from Evangelicals, with 74% stating they will vote for Trump as opposed to Biden’s 20%, his support has diminished across all demographics. His current 7% lead in Missouri is noticeably less than half of his winning percentage from 2016. However, our SLU/YouGov Poll reveals a significant drop in Trump’s popularity in Missouri since the 2016 Election Day, where he triumphed with a staggering 18.5% margin, garnering 56.4% of the vote compared to 37.9% for his opponent.
For individuals in Missouri, backing for Trump has declined since 2016, dropping from 62% to 56.5% among males and from 53% to 43% among females. Although Trump still retains significant support among voters without a college degree, his backing among those with a four-year college education has significantly decreased. According to our survey, his support has dropped from 55% in 2016 to 41% among this group of college graduates. While 45% of males with a four-year college degree state their intention to vote for Trump, only 36% of women with the same level of education express the same.
None of the 42 black women in our sample expressed support for Trump, which is quite surprising. Interestingly, 0% of black women stated that they would vote for him, while 23% of black males indicated their willingness to do so. As per our SLU/YouGov Poll, less than 10% of black voters, who form the largest minority group in Missouri, stated their intention to vote for Trump. It is worth noting that support among minority voters is even lower in the upcoming 2020 presidential election, although in 2016 Trump managed to secure 22% of the minority vote in Missouri. Similar to 2016, minority support for Trump in Missouri remains extremely weak.
In Missouri, Trump is maintaining his position with Republicans. In 2016, 92% of Missouri Republicans cast their votes in favor of him, and our SLU/YouGov Poll indicates that 91% of Missouri Republicans have expressed their intention to vote for him in 2020. However, Trump’s support among Missouri’s Independents has declined from 61% in the 2016 election to nearly 50% in 2020. According to our poll, Trump is facing significant vulnerability with unemployed Missouri voters, as 74.5% of them have stated their intention to vote for Biden. This implies that if unemployment rises before Election Day, it could pose serious challenges to Trump’s chances of winning on November 3rd, even in Missouri.
Findings from our YouGov/SLU poll indicate that if the election were held today, Missouri would once again be a winning state for Trump. This shows that Trump’s favorable poll numbers have remained strong, despite there still being several months left until the presidential election.
President Trump Approval Ratings
